Tech Forecasts: what is the next big thing in 2019?

It is the time of the year when consultants and analysts take stock of the technology trends and prognosticate over emerging technologies. There are many variances to the forecasts and the number of trends predicted, ranging from “top 5” to “top 20” and in-between*. The predictions are around flavors of digital tools and technologies - AI/ML, big-data, SMAC, analytics, Big Data and a few BHAGS like autonomous vehicles and commercial space travel.

Having spent the past couple of decades in the vibrant global tech world, I continue to study and reflect on these forecasts. When read collectively, they are a barometer of where the business investments are headed, especially since the major trends seem to converge on a few common themes. It is also obvious that most analysts glance at the short-term rear-view to ‘predict’ what they see bubbling to the top.

Corporate Digitization playing catchup with Consumer Tech

In the past few years most of the promising emerging technologies were adopted by consumers before finding their way into the corporate world. The earlier generation of iPhones set the bar high for smartphones and consumer adoption eventually leading to BYOD in enterprises. Similarly, consumers began to experience ubiquitous access to WiFi and corporate IT began to follow suite. Machine Learning enabled Chatbots and digital assistants are re-defining consumer User Interfaces using voice and Natural Language to interact with systems.

Many of these technologies are being designed into application platforms and products, enabling corporate users. It is likely that in 2019, we will encounter “2.0” of many of the trends that have already been firming up this year. Let me illustrate with a couple of technology trends that are common in analyst reports

• Blockchain – Even with the wild swing in the market for Bitcoins this year, tech watchers continued to keep the focus squarely on the underlying cryptographic techniques. Blockchain adoption has moved beyond pilot to production in several industry verticals. Adopting Blockchain techniques to enable trust and traceability between corporate entities will transform some segments of the industry; but it is primarily an underlying technology plumbing to enable Enterprise Architectures, and will be transparent to most users. This is because even the most innovative techniques in data and integration are primarily about enabling secure data transfer. 
• Robotics and Automation – I spent the good part of this year strategizing and operationalizing Robotic Process Automation (RPA) for a Fortune-500 company. These Intelligent Automation techniques continue to make inroads without waiting for organizations to transform their business processes. The reason for this is rather straightforward: even as we move into 2019, there are too many gaps in legacy platforms and processes, that are either too expensive to transform or replace. This is the sweet spot that where adoption of intelligent Automation will continue to make inroads.
• Machine Learning and Cognitive Computing – Chatbots and intelligent assistants are appearing in a variety of internal and external facing corporate scenarios. However, these are just a small subset of use-cases. Most software vendors are beginning to embed AI and ML techniques into their technology platforms that include supply-chain and planning, recruitment, talent sourcing, big data and analytics, financial data processing and within ERP and CRM systems among others. Such adoption of AI and ML, while transparent to corporate business and technology teams are transforming usability of systems and productivity of users. 

So what do the technology forecasts mean to us?

The year-end is certainly the time to reflect on changes personal and professional, but technology trends and innovations do not follow any calendar; especially not the Gregorian calendar.

• ‘Technology innovation’ is really a continuum of change that we need to be embracing 
• Depending on the nature of your role in an organization and its business, there are some technologies that will influence you and your business more than others will. 
• Your businesses’ appetite for change will dictate the pace of adoption in your organization

A link to a small sampling of tech forecasts - Gartner Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2019 || Deloitte's 2019 Technology Industry Outlook || ZDNet What’s next for 2019? IoT trends and predictions || Inc. 31 Tech Predictions for 2019 || Looking in a rear-view - Top 10 technology trends to watch in 2018

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Thanks for reading! Please click on Like, or Share, Tweet and Comment below to continue this conversation or share your favorite 'trend to watch' | Reposted from my LinkedIn Blog

Drone careers: Why Amazon’s flying Drone delivery may not mean much to rest of us

Drones are making headlines all the time. Just this week we got our best look at Amazon's flying drone delivery program: Amazon PrimeAir. Many of us are either playing with cool-toy-drones (link: playing with my six-year-old  ) or aspire to play with them. Not surprisingly, drones are expected to surpass other electronic gadgets, tablets and smartphones as the number one Christmas gift this year.

Most articles also play on the cool-and-new-factor, though some also highlight a few practical uses of drones. Of the few recent drone stories, a couple that jumped out for me include the one about the increasing tax collection in Guilford County in North Carolina where I live. A local journal has an interesting article about Guilford County’s success in leveraging emerging technologies to increase tax compliance. (County FindsSpying From Sky Surprisingly Profitable). The article highlights an interesting mashup of technologies: “ChangeFinder” software and Drones “photographic mapping from the sky.” The ROI for the county is worth noting: $500,000 investment that returns over $600,000 annually! 

Another interesting story is that of a Chinese company pushing towards commercialization of drones for crop spraying. (WSJ: Chinese Drone Maker Plows Into Agriculture) This article is more about the "art of the possible," predicting potential for the future uses in Agriculture that analysts continue to watch carefully.

So, what do the cool stories mean to you and me?

Like many of us in the field of technology, I occasionally wear my “Technology Forecasting” hat. While catching up on the news and hype over drones, I began reflecting if the opportunities for individuals are a bit over-hyped.  

• Next generation “iDrone” entrepreneurs:  While military uses of drones have taken off, we are at the very early stages of drone adoption, especially commercial adoption of drones. One can argue, the world is still awaiting the iDrone: slick, easy to use drones available for a certain price. An apple-like designer who can scale up and market such drones is going to be the top of the pyramid.
• Drone Designers: There are a few cool, innovative drones in the market, but like the Chinese SZ DJI Technology example shows, those are still at a very preliminary stage.
• Application Integrators:  Besides manufacture and design of drones, I think the real opportunity is for Software engineers, big-data analysts and ‘integrators.’ Entrepreneurs and organizations that can architect and commercialize applications, especially applications that can make money for customers, like the tax collectors at Guilford County or Amazon is trying to develop drones for package delivery.
• Drone “Pilots” and operators  – While many of us will be playing with cool new drones during the holidays, one wonders how many would want to make a career of piloting drones. For one, such a “career” may involve living out of a suitcase, driving around the country operating drones for clients.  I wonder if the life of a commercial crop-duster-drone-pilot would be akin to a crop duster pilot.
• Drone Mechanics and services: As the size and scale of commercial drone operations increases, one would need an entire ecosystem of mechanics and engineers to service, maintain and repair drones.

Many of us are excited over the possibilities and adoption of this cool technology. However, increasing government regulation in countries around the world – like FAA’s increasing regulation of Unmanned Aircraft Systems – are worth watching. The regulators could decide to restrict commercial drone; ensuring the hype crashes even before liftoff.

(cross post from LinkedIn Pulse)

Tech buyouts, innovation and corporate world: Case in point Agbiz!

Facebook’s $16 Billion Deal for WhatsApp announcement on Wednesday is sure to light a fire in the belly of every digirati and wannabe tech-entrepreneur. Billion with a B is a lot of money, and at times it feels like we are back to the dot.com hype era, perhaps with a fancy 3.0 moniker. And speaking of money there is a race to keep even our money virtual; Bitcoin anybody? As Brett Scott writes in New Scientist, “Bitcoin has brought with it a dream of an autonomous digital economy, free from corrupt banks and Big Brother governments.”

Reading of all this “innovation” is fun, though one generally moves back from virtual and digital to the reality of business and life. And the business of agriculture – the business of my employer - is perhaps as real as it can get. Even in AgBiz, innovation seems to be springing both serendipitously and also as a process of continuous evolution. A few months ago I was reviewing “Big Data meets big Agribusiness” (link), an example of big dollars chasing big innovation. The recent HBR blog “What Dronesand Crop Dusters Can Teach About Minimum Viable Product” made me reflect on innovation as a process of continuous evolution; bottom-up innovation if you will. Using the example, Steve Blank, highlights a few interesting lessons learnt

• Build continuous customer discovery into your company DNA
• An MVP eliminates parts of your business model that create complexity
• Focus on what provides immediate value for Earlyvangelists
• Add complexity (and additional value) later

Most of us in the corporate world aspire to innovate. Sometimes it is innovating new business models, ways of working or adoption of emerging technologies. In all cases, the end goal is to either impact the top line – increase revenue or growth – or the bottom line; reducing cost, bringing efficiencies etc. And unlike the occasional multi-billion dollar deal for WhatsApp that strikes the Olympic gold by translating virtual ideas and eyeballs to real money, innovation in corporate world is generally unsung and under recognized. Only a few innovations end up as the stuff of folklore either within the company, industry or if really lucky get a mention in a b-school case study.

Which brings us back to this case study on enabling “Precision agriculture.” Technologies, including innovative uses of data and analytics are playing their part but the end goal is the same that generations of farmers, for thousands of years have been struggling with: generating consistently better yield of crops while addressing the risks Mother Nature throws at them.  And if Ashwin's hyper-spectral cameras fitted on crop dusters can help improve yields, we will be moving slightly closer to the utopian goal of feeding the billions of fellow global citizen. Now, this is innovation with a purpose!

Technology Lead Innovation or Technologists playing catchup?

There is a fascinating article on innovation that appeared in the Wall Street Journal yesterday “You Call That Innovation?”

The article quotes Scott Berkun, the author of the 2007 book "The Myths of Innovation," which warns about the dilution of the word, says that what most people call an innovation is usually just a "very good product." (He prefers to reserve the word for civilization-changing inventions like electricity, the printing press and the telephone—and, more recently, perhaps the iPhone.).  

Even with the recent hoopla over the 100 billion valuation of the much hyped “innovative” technology company of our time – facebook - architecture and technology lead innovation remains the Holy Grail for most Enterprise Architects.

Besides the hype over iDevices and Social media, we have been witnessing seismic innovation in the technology, especially when it comes to realizing the value and mobility of data! Just a couple of examples: In consumer music Cassette Tapes to the Cloud (though growing up, I also fondly recall my dad listening to LP records …)

Or the way I have been carrying my “personal” and work data while I travel the globe

One is left to wonder how much of the “innovation” we see around us is actually technology lead versus innovative business models implemented with the right technologies (including Information Technology).