Parallels between dot.com era and mobile application gold rush

There was an interesting article in New York Times this weekend that made me reflect on mobility gold rush and takeaways from the dot.com boom-and-bust we experienced not so long ago. (#NYT: As Boom Lures App Creators, Tough Part Is Making a Living)


The theme of NYT story reads almost identical to several stories chronicling the dot.com and eCommerce gold rush during late nineteen nineties. The author, David Streitfeld, picks two distinct examples of entrepreneurs in mobile app development space to highlight success and struggles. If we distill the key takeaways from that “era,” a few patterns emerge

• Dot.com era: Legions of developers joined the dot.com gold-rush but only a few entrepreneurs created blockbuster tools or websites and successfully cashed out early by selling them for multiples of million dollars (remember Sabeer Bhatia of Hotmail, Pierre Omidyar of eBay?). 
• Parallels in Mobility era: NYT Article quotes Ethan Nicholas who made more than $1 million on an artillery game mobile app. Nicholas is an early mover in the mobile era if you will. Of course, the real blockbuster in all this is Apple’s iPhone and iPads application eco-system that other technology companies are trying extremely hard to emulate.

• Dot.com era: The dot.com one burst in Year 2000 leading to a huge wipeout of investments and dreams of a generation of techies.  
• Parallels in Mobility era: Nokia, Research in Motion continue to flounder – at least the stock market thinks they do - while even tech giants like Microsoft try to find their way around the tectonic shift to mobile computing and applications.

• Dot.com era: Despite the bubble and bust, a few really successful businesses with innovative business models – eBay, Amazon, Google, priceline et al – took off and continue to grow and thrive 
• Parallels in Mobility era: Not sure if the story of Shawn and Stephanie Grimes in NYT article would fall into this category yet. Their efforts to develop breakthrough products have cost $200,000 in lost income and savings. Their apps have earned less than $5,000 this year. This said, the mobile-app ecosystem is huge. Apple alone claims to have paid out over $6.5 Billion in royalties to mobile app developers and entrepreneurs in the past few years.

• Dot.com era: technology globalization and offshoring boom. The dot.com gold rush was not restricted to the US alone. It continued around the world: India, China, Brazil, Europe all have their favorite dot.com boom-and-bust stories. 
• Parallels in Mobility era: A good percentage $6.5 billion in royalty payment by Apple went to application developers overseas, a micro-offshoring boom if you will.

There are other similarities between dot.com and mobile application segments with learning’s for entrepreneurs too. eCommerce has become mainstream with most – if not all - brick-and-mortar companies and retailers embracing additional channels to reach out to service and sell to customers. Hundreds of thousands of smaller entrepreneurs, consultants and programmers continue to survive thrive servicing and e-enabling enterprises large and small. And few innovative models continue to emerge. In the past year alone, Facebook went forward with a multi-billion-dollar IPO, and went on to buy photo sharing service Instagram for $1bn.

Just like in the e-commerce gold rush boom, the gold diggers with a spade - mobile application creators - continue to struggle to make a Living, searching for the next blockbuster …. While the spade sellers like Apple who staked out the landscape early continue to thrive. Other tech majors continue to learn from and emulate Apple’s model. Google (with android ecosystem), Amazon (with its kindle ecosystem and ecommerce engine) and Microsoft (windows 8) have taken a playbook from Apple and are competing to create similar ecosystems for application developers.

May you live in interesting times

I have long tuned off to viral anything-on-the-net but the news of Bronco Bama Girl video going viral last week really struck a chord.

A few weeks ago, during the heat of election mania I casually mentioned to my wife that we would watch the first presidential debate on TV that evening. Our toddler son overheard and was all excited at the prospect of watch "something" on TV. And he was equally excited to mutter the new word, debate, all day. A couple of minutes after the evening broadcast began, he realized that the “debate” was just two men on screen standing and talking. He was so underwhelmed that he started crying. (that scene of course wasn’t as photogenic as that of Abigael Evans’s red faced brawl but it came close). Perhaps the reason why that video went viral: natives and immigrants in America alike have been overwhelmed by the election mania during the past weeks and months.

Just as the election drama was reaching a crescendo, hurricane Sandy stuck north eastern US. Stories of the tragedies and lives lost made me reflect on the power Mother Nature sways, even in the wealthiest nation in the world, with all the possible resources at its disposal. With accounts of Hurricane Sandy overwhelming newswaves, the tragic news of African dogs mauling a boy at Pittsburgh zoo didn’t get as much attention in the media.

As we come to the close of a frenzied presidential election in America, the old Chinese saying “May you live in interesting times” seems apt. 

A quick look at Microsoft's Surface

There are lots of articles and reviews on Microsoft's recently launched Surface and Tablet devices so it is hard to have a "new" viewpoint.  However, here is my initial reaction to MS Surface model I have been playing with:

• Sweet spot: A neat tablet for office workers. Familiar Windows look-and-feel retained in the “desktop” mode. Caveat: will require user-training re-learning (pinch, toggle apps etc) to run apps in the metro/tablet mode
• Should have a seamless windows experience once we dock and use a bigger screen, mouse and regular keyboard
• Assuming windows authentication, security, single-signon etc apply, easy to enforce current IS management policies
• Big plus: comes with USB port: for users to transfer data and files without the need to be on the cloud/network. I could easily connect a mouse, keyboard etc to the Surface and work in a desktop mode.

Where it Surface may get challenged by other BYOD alternatives:

• Corporations are already moving user/business applications to VDI mode. This will make other alternatives (iPADs) equally attractive in the workplace
• Cool factor: If MS/Market positions Surface as a tablet for “grown ups.” Road-warriors may be hesitant to bring it to sales/client meetings on the road, a fate BB is suffering (ref: recent #NYT article - The BlackBerry as Black Sheep and my blog post on the topic)
• Practical challenge: Cold boot time is over 45 seconds. iPad and Android tablets take much less time to boot up. Not cool.
• Backward compatibility: ARM version running Windows RT is not backward compatible. Users will be unable to install oder Windows apps.  Cost benefit of x86-powered device will have to be factored in

Note : What I meant by “official alternative to BYOD” is around the thinking: if a good percentage of mobile users go for BYOD, corporate IT may rethink their llaptop upgrades and replacements (would be at a smaller scale). This is assuming iPAD/BYOD users who can access business applications using VDI wouldn’t really want a work-laptop replacement. Corporate IT will then offer an “official alternative to BYOD” (laptop replacement) only for the smaller subset of users. 

Bottomline Yes, Microsoft Surface can be "the official"  (Corporate IT) alternative to BYOD and will get the job done nicely!


Other Links:

• What's the Deal With Windows 8?
• Microsoft Surface With Windows RT vs. Apple iPad: Specs Compared
• Why Microsoft's Surface Tablet is my new favorite device
• Review: The Microsoft Surface Tablet
• Playing With Microsoft's Surface
• Microsoft's Surface RT Is Worth a Look CIO (blog)

Hurricane Sandy and a bow to Mother Nature!

It is rare for the US Stock markets and federal government to declare a holiday, especially on a Monday.

With hurricane Sandy all but shutting the North Eastern United States, the stock markets and governments had to follow suite. The storm and its impact is taking over headlines, even pushing the hotly contested US presidential elections down a notch.

With all the technological advances at our disposal including mass transit and ability to telecommute, we still live in a physical world. And the world is controlled by vagaries of nature, some of which humans can predict, but not control.

The only thought comes to mind: We bow to you mother nature!

ps: Even with the mother of all storms here, American Chutzpah knows no bounds : Hurricane Sandy halts surfing in the US Atlantic coast : "Surfing and water sports will not be possible in the US mid-Atlantic coast, as Hurricane Sandy reaches the coastline. Remember …that tsunami waves and storm waves should not be surfed. " #ohreally

Cheap cars and tablets : What if those at the bottom of pyramid don’t want to be cheap?

Sometime ago, the late business guru, Prof. CK Prahlad caught the imagination of marketers by coining the term bottom of the pyramid with his seminal article in Harvard Business review, followed by the book. The idea caught on and scores of case studies were published on the topic. The technologist in me, watching the innovations in marketplace, finds it fascinating that few have cracked the holy grail of technology-BOP. A few recent examples:

• Just last week, Ratan Tata who had captured global imagination with a two-thousand dollar (one lakh rupee) car reflected on how it was time to look beyond that vision (ref:  Ratan Tata admits to making mistakes with Nano)
• And now the $40 tablet tries to compete in the crowded tech marketplace.

One can logically argue how marketing "cheaper" products to those who can’t afford pricier brand makes sense. However, the logic doesn’t seem to fly in the marketplace where end consumers – folks who can’t afford anything more than cheapest brands – still aspire for products perceived to be branded.

Bottomline: What if those at the bottom of pyramid don’t want to be "cheap"? I guess there is a niche for cheaper cars and tablets in developing (read “third world”) markets, but the consumers there are as savvy as those in the developed markets. It will be interesting to see how Tata’s Nano and Datawind’s Ubislate 7Ci continue to innovate in the marketplace.

Ref.

• My earlier blog on the topic of cheap tablets
• Tata Nano to hit the US roads at price tag lower than $10,000 tag
• The Aakash is back, and shines in sneak peeks
• A $40 Tablet Tries to Compete - NYT Blog
• Tata Motors to Revamp the Nano - NYT

Shaming us away from Blackberry? Not cool!

My employer, like just about every global 2000/fortune 500 multinational is in the process of evaluating and rolling out a BYOD strategy. Nothing new here, especially in the context of the ongoing Bring your Own Device push in the marketplace.  However, what is interesting is the fact that besides technical capabilities, usability and other functional requirements, Enterprise Architects now have to contend with another subtle push in the marketplace: shaming individuals away from Blackberry.

The recent #NYT article - The BlackBerry as Black Sheep – would have us believe we should be "ashamed" to carry a blackberry in public. The article starts off quoting Rachel Crosby who "speaks about her BlackBerry phone the way someone might speak of an embarrassing relative. … “I’m ashamed of it,” said Ms. Crosby, a Los Angeles sales representative who said she had stopped pulling out her BlackBerry at cocktail parties and conferences."

Reading the article made me reflect on how our lives seem to be shifting to that of meaningless technology-for-technology-sake race for coolness:

• I see people at restaurants or even movie halls whisk out their coolest new gadgets and begin texting, chatting and whatever while their guest/partner sits on the other side of the table doing the same. What’s more important here, impressing people in the restaurant or your guest with a cool gadget or having a cool conversation? 
• Rachel Crosby-ies  who come to cocktail parties and conferences probably have enough jewelry, clothing and shoes etc etc on them to make sure they look “cool.” And yet they have an urge to whisk out a smartphone to text, or update their facebook page or whatever… what about being in the moment and learning at the conference or having a conversation with others?

It is interesting that the article doesn’t even talk of the real cool-factor: showing off the most expensive phones 

Cool or not, stmartphones are just tools. For a generation of business users and road-warriors, blackberries were the defacto tool of choice for basic connectivity – email, calendar and voice. Blackberries are reliable and more importantly secure, and come with a QWERTY keyboard to boot. Adding to "basic" requirements for smartphone are a few more like surfing the internet and running some office applications. Newer blackberries, like their cooler smartphone cousins support these requirements too.

And as the old adage goes, a fool with a cool tool is still a (cool?) fool.

Tags: #NYT, RIMM, #Blackberry

Architecturally significant Use Case behind a haircut

Enterprise Architects, self included, train themselves to look for "Architecturally significant use cases" that demonstrate the core functionality targeted at key users. Most of the focus of such discussions is on the design and engineering of information systems. Schools of thinking on Enterprise Architecture, notably TOGAF, attempt to bring requirements at the center of any architecture or design activity. Rightly so. While focusing on key requirements requires working closely business stakeholders, it is more important to zero in how requirements impact the end users.

Case in point, I was at a hairdresser this weekend for a periodic cut-and-trim. After being greeted and seated on the barber chair, I began musing on how far and how close information technology has come and how a simple focus on architecturally significant use cases can lead to better customer interactions.

I am sure you are going to be wondering what a visit to a hairdresser has to do with enterprise architecture and architecturally significant use cases. So here is the context. I started frequenting Great-Clips during my road-warrior days when the no-frills haircut chain with outlets all over the country gave me a sense of known “brand” while traveling to Anytown USA. Most Great Clips' outlets have a familiar "standard operating procedure"

a) A hairdresser standing closest to the front desk breaks away from a customer s/he is working and greet every new patron stepping in.

b) After a ‘welcome to great clips,” s/he asks for their phone number.

c) After the number is found on the computer, s/he will give an estimated wait time to the patron and return back to work

d) When the next available hairdresser gets free s/he will look at the computer screen and call out for customer, in this case Mohan.

e) During my visit, the hairdresser, a new girl who had never cut my hair before asked me if I wanted the “usual”: trim in the sides, above the ears and behind over the collar. With a scissors and no machine? I replied “yes” and let her go about her job.

f) The visit ended with a consistent, predictable experience for this customer

In case you are wondering what’s the big deal? Chains like Great-Clips, unlike the small-town barber shops are staffed by hair-dressers who don’t make much. This in turn leads to a high turnover of staff. Customers like me who return back to the chain expect a consistent no-nonsense service without having to explain our “usual” preferences every time.


This is the perfect use-case for a simple Customer Relationship Management (CRM). Though I suspect behind the scenes the  Great-Clips’ CRM  is much more complicated, to me the simple act of storing my haircut preferences and the ability for any hairdresser working on my haircut to access information on my “usual” preference is a significant use case. Yet another way in which a faceless chain with transient workforce is able to leverage the wonders of databases, networks and user interfaces to provide a hometown-barber-shop-like experience to customers.

ps: the above blog post is not by any means an endorsement of Great-Clips; and I am not any closer to the design of their systems than the average Joe-customer. The Enterprise Architect in me, however spent time on the barber chair musing on the possibilities of us exploring similar use-cases that touch customers without them even having to think there is a lot more behind the scenes.